Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 22.155788 25.221820 28.527368 32.352284 36.652453 41.333692 46.812003
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.599422 21.749871 26.569394 32.564279 39.805503 48.253232 58.838696
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.287112 19.913413 25.545955 32.880129 42.147153 53.433972 68.187090
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.256746 18.098364 24.246205 32.581445 43.538000 57.393590 76.180710
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.928910 16.959640 23.583194 32.879836 45.518936 62.019852 85.097329
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.103094 16.371573 23.536936 33.909643 48.440073 67.952346 95.995744
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.977230 15.230934 22.599739 33.583199 49.408872 71.229498 103.399950
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.617199 13.609309 20.824980 31.890189 48.274783 71.449476 106.464001
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.126982 13.224150 20.788530 32.680072 50.711560 76.785965 117.025556
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.708680 12.903201 20.806475 33.524633 53.244298 82.355946 128.180001
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.093426 12.212165 20.195126 33.342227 54.180279 85.575332 135.961660
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.484241 11.474190 19.445967 32.872909 54.612345 88.014846 142.633285
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.023079 10.953691 19.021453 32.915916 55.890303 91.879530 151.817199
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.692202 10.626724 18.887651 33.419757 57.933232 97.043333 163.317743
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.344763 10.236808 18.611283 33.650096 59.514320 101.516866 173.893210
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.944153 9.715184 18.066346 33.374403 60.212710 104.568269 182.272792
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.672779 9.405501 17.864266 33.670055 61.882115 109.274727 193.582781
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.537324 9.338629 18.087082 34.726086 64.918999 116.403945 209.287406
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.213482 8.881360 17.563701 34.391306 65.466084 119.302280 217.881974
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.733320 8.074628 16.330880 32.660484 63.387554 117.532789 218.264345
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.615213 7.985680 16.449415 33.468074 65.984109 124.075324 233.543938
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.510258 7.914498 16.595169 34.331672 68.723098 130.986058 249.776256
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.292306 7.587794 16.214869 34.145153 69.462288 134.308503 259.659065